Seat projections from published polls. The site-wide average uses the last 10, as of 10 September. Numbers refresh automatically from the public polling record.
Each bar is a full majority wide, so a filled bar means that bloc could govern on its own. Totals are the rounded party averages added up, so they need not come to exactly 120, and a list polling below the threshold counts as nothing here even where it is close.
Who has ruled out whom
The seat totals are the easy part. These are the stated refusals that decide whether a bloc can actually convert its seats into a government. Each one is a public statement, and politicians have walked such statements back before.
Ben-Gvir and Ra'am have publicly ruled out sitting together.
Otzma Yehudit and the Joint List rule each other out.
Religious Zionism refuses Arab-party partners, and vice versa.
Religious Zionism and the Joint List rule each other out.
Liberman has refused to sit with Haredi parties since 2019.
Eisenkot conditions any partnership on change at the top of Likud.
Bennett and Lapid built their alliance on replacing Netanyahu.
Each faint dot is one published poll. Some houses read a few seats high for a given list and others read low, so a week when one of them publishes twice can look like movement that never happened. The line takes each house’s usual lean out before averaging, which is why it does not always run through the middle of the dots. The number after each name is that list’s seat average, the same one shown everywhere else on the site; poll-by-poll seats are in the table below.
Every poll
Tap a list to filter the table down to it, and tap more to compare. Each column is headed by the list’s ballot letters, or by its first name where it has none, and the header opens the party page.
A dash means below the threshold or not running in that poll.
How these numbers update
A scheduled job reads the poll feeds published by mako and Kan four times a day, normalizes party names, checks each poll adds up to 120 seats, and stores one row per outlet per fieldwork date. Pages read a rolling average of the last ten polls and refresh hourly.
How the seats are counted
Seat figures here are an average of other people's polls. You can change which ones go into it.
Who is in the average
Average of 10 polls · 10 Sept. Each remaining pollster's standing lean is measured again against the field that is left, so this is a different average and not the site's with rows deleted.