Count to 61
No Israeli party has ever won a majority on its own, so every government is a coalition. Stack slips until you reach 61.
As of 15 October, The Petek’s average of the last 10 published polls puts Likud on 22 seats, Yashar on 22 and B'Yachad on 12. The Netanyahu bloc totals 52, the Change bloc 51 and the Arab parties 13, against the 61 a government needs.
Where it stands
Polling average of the 10 most recent surveys, grouped by where each list stands on sitting with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu bloc
52 seats| Likudמחל | 22 seats |
| Otzma Yehuditב | 8 seats |
| Shasשס | 8 seats |
| United Torah Judaismג | 8 seats |
| Religious Zionism & Zehutט | 6 seats |
Lists that would sit in a Netanyahu government.
Change bloc
51 seats| Yasharדרך | 22 seats |
| B'Yachadרק | 12 seats |
| The Democratsאמת | 9 seats |
| Yisrael Beiteinuל | 8 seats |
Lists that have ruled out serving under him.
Arab parties
13 seats| The Joint Listודם | 8 seats |
| Ra'amעם | 5 seats |
Courted by neither bloc, and mostly ruling both out.
Netanyahu bloc 52, 9 short of 61Change bloc 51, 10 short of 61Arab parties 13
Who has ruled out whom
The seat totals are the easy part. Each line is a public statement about who a list will not sit with, and politicians have walked such statements back before.
- Ben-Gvir and Ra'am have publicly ruled out sitting together.
- Otzma Yehudit and the Joint List rule each other out.
- Religious Zionism refuses Arab-party partners, and vice versa.
- Religious Zionism and the Joint List rule each other out.
- Liberman has refused to sit with Haredi parties since 2019.
- Eisenkot conditions any partnership on change at the top of Likud.
- Bennett and Lapid built their alliance on replacing Netanyahu.
- The Democrats rule out serving under Netanyahu.
- Eisenkot's declared conditions exclude Otzma Yehudit.
- No party on the Joint List has joined an Israeli governing coalition, and Balad rejects doing so on principle.
Build your own
The tap-to-stack builder loads here when JavaScript is available. Without it, the bloc table above carries every seat count you need to add up a government by hand.